Conservative leadership.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Francisco Gomez — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 10:28:14 GMT

[quote user="Bob Russell"]

The devil will be in the detail.

[/quote]

Completely agree.

[quote]

Cameron came back from the EU with minor concessions only. The vote shows this was not enough.

[/quote]

I disagree with that though - I find the deal he got was excellent. It curves the freedom of movement in a way that no other of the 27 countries have. It ensured against 'medical holidays' and it protected the British benefits from outsiders unless they have been living here and working for a period of time. I think the vote shows that it wasn't given enough publicity. Many people didn't even know about this deal.

[quote user="Bob Russell"]

My wife has seen Polish families being given council houses locally, apparently in preference to local families which have been sitting on the waiting list for years.

[/quote]

This one is a biggie I think.

I'm happy to be corrected here, but if it is to do with the Equality Act, this is a British law.

If there are a 100 houses to be given and only 1 Polish family + 300 British families, the chances are that there will be an amount of houses for non British as a part of this Act. This, in turn, means the Polish family will get a house before some British (there are less of them applying, which also shows that most of them are working, not claiming!). I don't either agree or disagree with this, but I believe this is the case. I'll be happy to be corrected.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Bob Russell — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 09:58:54 GMT

The ease of access to the UK work market will depend very much on the ease (or otherwise) of getting a visa.

To get someone in from outside the EU is a logistical nightmare. The company has to register, pay high charges and be ready for inspection.

The devil will be in the detail. In recent years the numbers of immigrants especially Polish, have moved in and created ghettos in some areas. This has happened throughout history but not in the numbers seen in the last decade.

Clearly this has provided enough people with someone to blame for their woes. My wife has seen Polish families being given council houses locally, apparently in preference to local families which have been sitting on the waiting list for years.

One of the families are good friends of ours! Still raised more than a few eyebrows though!

Too many people perceive these genuinely good people as a threat to jobs and housing. They see them as draining benefits and clogging up the NHS.

Is it true? I doubt it but that changes nothing. Cameron came back from the EU with minor concessions only. The vote shows this was not enough.

Non-EU immigrants cannot claim any benefits, they have to pay £500 every 2½ years towards the NHS until they have been here 5 years. Then they can pay £1000 to get indefinite leave to remain and then they are free of immigration control.

I doubt this will apply to EU immigrants as there will be a compromise. Perhaps along the lines Cameron should have got in the first place.

The highly skilled will follow the jobs wherever they are!

RE: Conservative leadership.

Francisco Gomez — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 18:51:07 GMT

[quote user="Richard Stephenson"]

[quote user="Francisco Gomez"]bunch that has decided to bring the country to its knees [/quote]

Whatever ones view of the outcome of the vote the 'die is cast' and the Country needs to take full advantage of the many opportunities there are out there. Perhaps we need to view this not so much as leaving the EU but rejoining the World.

Richard S.

[/quote]

I don't disagree with opportunities being there to be taken Richard.

But, in my view, there's a strong damage that has been done. You do say that the Remain campaign didn't emphasise enough the benefits. I think they did. The problem is that the Remain campaign was pretty much 'paid by the taxpayer' because it was supported by the government. And that was, by itself, an argument against it. If you ask anyone in the street, I'm sure they're aware of how much it cost the pamphlet the government sent around, but do they know who Arron Banks is?

If the damage wasn't done by the referendum, it has helped it come to the surface. The UK called for many EU nationals to come because it is part of the EU. Once the free movement is over, it won't be as attractive for people with high skills, because it would be a burden. I would've never considered to come over if the UK wasn't in the EU. (I'm sure some here would be glad to hear that one ). Then you'll have less Polish workers with low skills, I'm sure. But who will be paying for the pensions and medical care of the British ageing population once the young and fit decide that it is no longer a good idea to come over?

We have witnessed that people are very easily manipulated by lies like the 'NHS' advert, being like Switzerland or Iceland (but without telling what their relation with the EU really is) or voting for the chap 'Boris Becker', it has given the rest of the world a view of the degree of ignorance that exists in the UK. British people, until no long ago were regard as mostly clever, intelligent, people to aspire to. I'm afraid, internationally, that has taken a bit of a tumble.

When you say 'expand' to the world markets, what I see is a place to 'exploit' people. People have already assimilated that they need to work harder because that is what it means 'taking back control', that more cuts will come. In reality, they have chosen to lose rights. The rights once earned (in part by the UK support) in the EU, will eventually diverge and some might no longer apply. They were also demonised as 'red tape', but it will mean you'd be at mercy of large companies taking advantage of the British worker.

If the EU breaks apart, it won't be because there isn't a true desire of the continuation of the project, or because a few banks and countries aren't performing adequately. It will be because there are less than trustworthy forces wanting that break. And these forces have struck the UK first. I don't know the whole of Europe, but in the few people and countries that I have access to outside the UK, the talks arent about the EU breaking, the talks are mostly about relief.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Martin Atkinson — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 18:18:44 GMT

[quote user="Francisco Gomez"] 'Mamma... I can't shoot them anymore...'?[/quote]Trouble is we're knock, knock, knockin' on Hell's door not Heaven's door Francisco!

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 17:23:42 GMT

Richard According to local gossip, the improved prospects fot Tata steel, makes the deselection of the local MP..........Stephen Kinnock..........a prominent remainer..........even more likely.

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 17:20:08 GMT

Bob All that's needed to produce a work ethic is to make life very very very hard for those without it. If the 1st benefit reduction doesn't work, then introduce a further one...............and a further one.........................and yet another further one.

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Richard Stephenson — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 16:07:56 GMT

[quote user="Francisco Gomez"]bunch that has decided to bring the country to its knees [/quote]

I am fairly neutral on the issue of BREXIT but I have to observe that it was the 'fear' tactics of comments like this that drove ordinary people - who do not like being bullied and threatened into the BREXIT vote. The REMAIN campaign should have tried to emphasise to positive benefits of staying in the EU, when the only argument they really put was the danger of leaving. This made me wonder if the REMAIN group really believe that there are benefits of EU membership for the UK OR are they just afraid of life outside?

The UK is far from its knees, it is now free of the dangers of being linked to the 'Euro Zone' with its decidedly dodgy currency and imminent collapse of the Italian Banks, it will be able to trade freely with the rest of the World, rebuild neglected links with Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, India, Canada, and the USA (for example). The long faces of the European Commission Officials spoke eloquently of a group of politicians who realise they cannot make the books balance without their third biggest donor and second biggest trading partner.

If the UK economy was so weak and dependent on being in a European super state then why has the UK acted like a magnet for so many EU nationals to come here. Mathematically there are almost as many Polish people here as ALL UK nationals living on mainland Europe. They are here because there is a strong vibrant economy which will now be able to expand into World markets. India has already seen the opportunity that BREXIT creates - others have mentioned the sudden change of direction by TaTa steel. The stock market has not only recovered its panic loses after BREXIT but is now starting to surge ahead. The pound has started to regain ground. Strong growth in the economy continues. There is a new Prime Minister with massive Parliamentary support.

Richard S.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Bob Russell — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 15:49:42 GMT

[quote user="Malcolm Ness"]

[quote user="Bob Russell"]It may be that the UK starts to sell more outside the EU, almost certainly at a cost to the EU.[/quote]

Many are overlooking that any new trade relationship with the EU countries will be NEGOTIATED. The UK is not in a weak position in that regard. Remember that the single market without UK will be rather smaller than before. Germany sells more BMWs to UK than it does to any other European country; 20% of all Prossecco made is drunk in UK and we import more champagne than the rest of Europe put together. None of these businesses are going to support punitive tariffs on their goods.

[/quote]

I had rather taken it as read that the single market will continue to be available, perhaps with some tweaks to save face. I also don't believe immigration will be controlled that well either! Much as I would like jobs to be done by UK residents, I am not kidding myself that an improved work ethic will appear like magic.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Malcolm Ness — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 15:31:36 GMT

[quote user="Bob Russell"]It may be that the UK starts to sell more outside the EU, almost certainly at a cost to the EU.[/quote]

RE: Conservative leadership.

Bob Russell — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 12:58:02 GMT

This country has not been brought to its knees nor will it be! The economy may well be affected by the uncertainty but some of this relates to the state of the EU.

TATA steel are reconsidering the viability of some of its steel operations in the UK. A rise in steel prices and the drop in the value of the pound has allowed more of the sums to add up.

£3bn contract with Boeing plus expected sales announcements at Farnborough.

It may be that the UK starts to sell more outside the EU, almost certainly at a cost to the EU.

I find the 'Cassandra' s', forecasting doom and gloom, faintly amusing! The UK will (as would most countries) come out fighting. About the only thing I can think of that is likely to put the country on the rocks is a Labour government under Corbyn. I also fear that there are enough piss*d off people to put him there as a protest vote!

If the 'leave' campaigners are not up to the job then it is better they do step aside and leave experienced politicians to run the country.

I cannot believe I want politicians to run the country!! Civil servants generally do a better job.

By the time Article 50 is invoked the EU may already be a very different place.

Edit: I very much doubt many people voted for closer political union with the EU. I suspect they just preferred the safety of the status quo and fighting our corner within the system, not outside it. Did anyone hear anyone spouting that we need to join the Euro, have a unified single central bank and a single European Army?

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 12:31:39 GMT

You're better off in the lifeboat rather than remaining on the Titanic.

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Francisco Gomez — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 11:58:54 GMT

I now wonder how any of the bunch that has decided to bring the country to its knees can sleep at night. Most (all!) leavers have quitted or have been defeated. Theresa will have to knock at Brussels door since Eadsom is about to quit... Will she be accused of coming back empty handed and say 'Mamma... I can't shoot them anymore...'?

RE: Conservative leadership.

Richard Stephenson — Sun, 10 Jul 2016 19:23:32 GMT

[quote user="Bob Russell"]Despite this I am for Ms May. [/quote]

It is interesting that the exercise of the democratic power of the people to contradict the elected professional politicians, the political pundits, the 'experts' in banking and economics, the captains of industry and foreign leaders is having such profound political effects.

The voters have shown that despite having the full weight of the State thrown at them to vote REMAIN they will and can think for themselves and vote LEAVE instead. In doing so they have brought down a government, wrecked the Official opposition and shaken a complacent (?arrogant) political class to its core.

However 48% of people did support staying within the European Union (and presumably therefore a closer political Union). In my view the next Prime Minister needs to be someone who WILL enact the will of the people as expressed by the referendum BUT also respect the remain point of view and negotiate a close economic / trade relationship outside the political union. For that reason I too will vote for MAY - as a pro EU supporter she is well placed to negotiate in a friendly manner with our closest allies to secure a deal which will be mutually beneficial to both the UK and German / French workers. The UK negotiates, of course, form a position of great strength being a net importer of European goods & labour and I think the extremely tough yet reasonable understated approach of Mrs M will be just right for the job.

I do think that if nothing else the referendum result has reawakened an interest in politics - would this sort of thing have been discussed on this forum a year ago???

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Sun, 10 Jul 2016 11:39:44 GMT

Don't be rude to screech owls

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Clare Tapsfield-Wright — Sun, 10 Jul 2016 11:30:27 GMT

I've just had to mute Angela Eagle on Peston on Sunday, she sounds like a screech owl not an eagle , painful voice no matter what she is saying. Yes I know that's unfair but she makes David Beckham sound like Barry White

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Sun, 10 Jul 2016 11:18:26 GMT

Virginia The UK population is still rising - 65 million at the latest count. It was 50 million when I was a child.

What bothers me is the environmental impact of a totally out of control exploding human population, and the looming catastrophe that is rapidly approaching. The wars and famines will be horrific. It's a fundamental law of ecology that a given environment can only support a finite number of individuals. This law applies to our own species as much as any other.

In fact, I think the consequences of our out of control population are already with us. How many of the economic migrants entering Europe have been forced to move by over-population? That's the question no-one but me seems prepared to even ask. Many originate in Nigeria or the Congo - countries with fertility rates of 5 or 6. What part does population pressure on scarce resources have to play in the civil unrest that's occurring in both countries. Everybody seems too politically correct to even ask!

Virginia You're obviously a lot younger than me to have a 6 month old child. World population is expanding at a rate of 80 million per annum. By the time you're my age, you may be suffering the consequences, and realising that I was right - except by then it will be too late.

We're consuming resources at a frightening rate - oil is predicted to run out in < 40 years. It's obvious that the more people there are consuming, then the more rapidly sources will be exhausted. Without oil, it won't just be a case of no more flying off on exotic holidays. Without oil-based fertilisers and pesticides, agricultural production will plummet. Unless a reduction in birth rate has reduced the population to a level which can be fed from organic agriculture, then the only alternative will be for starvation to bring about the necessary reduction - not nice!

The millions of hectares of deforestation occurring annually are frightening - again, these will take years to regenerate. Google world deforestation, and prepare to be horrified by the damage our species has already caused, and by the further damage which highly respected research institutes predict is going to occur.

Given current rates of population expansion, by the time your daughter is my age, she'll be living in a world of 12.5 billion people. She may not thank you for having brought her into that world, and will probably be totally unable to comprehend why people now couldn't see what was coming, and didn't have the sense to do something about it. I've long ago come to the conclusion that humans evolved from lemmings.

If I could get back even half the tax I've paid over the last 36 years less the cost of my own education, and medical care ( 1 tetanus booster in the last 10 years, so that's not going to be much) then I'd be more than happy to do without a pension when I eventually retire - which I hope won't be for manynyears yet.

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Clare Tapsfield-Wright — Sun, 10 Jul 2016 07:08:04 GMT

One of the things which struck me on a recent trip to the states was the number of homeless people and people whose body weight and appearance make it clear that they were genuinely on the breadline in a country where the wealth and opulence was breathtaking. A Trump Tower in every city and multimillion pound public art works everywhere while their welfare support was minimal. Yes there are those who take advantage of our welfare system but it is the system which needs to make that abuse more difficult. There but for luck of birth go all of us.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Virginia Campbell — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 23:55:14 GMT

There was a Modest Proposal to deal with[quote user="Hannah Wynne Richards"]children like that [/quote] once, but it didn't catch on.

Luckily, despite all the evil evil immigrants and evil evil benefits claimants having children, our national "lambing average" is still less than 2.0 so the poor poor taxpayer can rest a little more easily in bed. Speaking of bed, I'd better go and carry my own little pollution generating unit up to hers. Don't worry Wynne, when she's six months old she will be going into a nursery so I can pull on my Fulltime Economically Productive Unit halo again.

Her Child Benefit will go into an account to save for her university education - as I'm sure you're aware Wynne, education of girls and young women seems to be one of the most reliable (and humane) methods of reducing the number of children they are likely to have.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Marie Kubiak — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 12:28:08 GMT

Wynne am I right to assume you are going to decline to take a state pension when you retire?

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 12:12:41 GMT

If as well as actual unemployment pay you add on "sickness" benefit paid to those not actually too ill to work, and housing benefit, and child benefit given to children of unemployds and "sick" claiments, you'll find the final bill much higher,

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Lucy Fleming — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 11:37:15 GMT

[quote user="Hannah Wynne Richards"] Simple solution Stop benefits. The work is there, so benefits are unnecessary. Taxpayers will be much better off.[/quote]

Well, since unemployment benefits are around 0.01% of the welfare budget, I don't know that tax payers will be 'much' better off. Stopping pensions would be more effective.

[quote user="Hannah Wynne Richards"]The world is ridiculously overcrowded, and this is one of the most crowded countries in it.[/quote]

We're 51st in terms of population density, so not really one of the most crowded. I agree there is a massive concern with world population and strain on resources, but I don't think draconian legislation verging on eugenics is the answer. In some first world countries (Japan being the most obvious example) the birth rate has dropped so low that there is a concern over who will care for the increasing ageing population. The answer is probably to import young workers from overseas to provide care, and a similar situation is arising here. Certainly migrant workers, generally being young and healthy, are far less likely to use the services of the NHS or claim benefits than our own increasingly ageing population.

In terms of who I want to be PM - hmmmm. Theresa May certainly seems a secure pair of hands, though I find her attitude towards human rights to be worringly cavalier. Leadsom lacks experience, and also appears to hold somewhat homophobic views I find distasteful.

Somewhat off topic, but entertainingly, domains related to Leadsom and her campaign have been bought up and variously linked to a donation page for the labour party, a donation page for Stonewall, and a site detailing some of her less appealing views...

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 11:23:03 GMT

Bob Maybe the % on benefits is lower in the New Forest than it is in Swansea, and therefore they're not so much " in your face" If you think I'm harsh, then you should listen to some of my clients who are working in low paid jobs, living on a council estate, next door to some feckless waste of space who's "on the sick" despite being able to go about, and, worst of all reproduce in an excessive manner.

The waste of space is the 1 driving a brand new car.

This is totally immoral.

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Bob Russell — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 11:07:12 GMT

Yes, Conservative member. Largely because my MP was very supportive of our household when fighting the Home Office!!

Despite this I am for Ms May. We are going to need someone who is tough and unyielding. Much to my surprise I actually want Osborne to remain Chancellor of the Exchequer for now!

Not claiming any benefits but do plan to take my retirement pension at some stage. If I am unwell and not able to make ends meet, at least I know I will not go hungry. Yes I carry insurance but then I can afford to!

My sister in law gets housing benefit and child tax credits. She works hard in the same hotel my wife does but has young children so needs her income topped up. She is neither a thief nor lazy and I really respect what she manages to do.

Wynne just has a decidedly blinkered view on the world. There are some dregs to humanity but most try hard.

RE: Conservative leadership.

Hannah Wynne Richards — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 10:58:07 GMT

The answer is a government prepared to stop children like that being born in the 1st place.

Obvious.

Wynne

RE: Conservative leadership.

Iain Richards — Sat, 09 Jul 2016 10:24:15 GMT

"I honestly don't know who I want to be the next Prime Minister"

As ye sow, so shall ye reap...

Bob, Interesting choice from Dickens. If you recall, as the Spirit of Christmas Present fades, two ragged children are revealed:

They are Man's,' said the Spirit, looking down upon them. 'And they cling to me, appealing from their fathers. This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the
writing be erased. Deny it.' cried the Spirit, stretching out its hand towards the city. 'Slander those who tell it ye. Admit it for your factious purposes, and make it worse. And abide the end.'

'Have they no refuge or resource.' cried Scrooge.

'Are there no prisons.' said the Spirit, turning on him for the last time with his own words. 'Are there no workhouses?"